According to Masahiro Sakurai, the creator of the Super Smash Bros. series, the win rates of characters in Super Smash Bros. Ultimate are remarkably balanced.
In a recent video on his YouTube channel, “Masahiro Sakurai on Creating Games,” Sakurai shared some interesting statistics about the online win rates of the game’s fighters while discussing the principles of game balance.
While he didn’t disclose the win rates for individual characters, Sakurai revealed that the best-performing character wins 51.43% of the time, and the worst-performing character wins 47.18% of the time. The win rates for the remaining 85 characters fall somewhere between these figures.
“This data indicates that any fighter has a chance of winning a match,” Sakurai explained. “Achieving much closer win rates would be incredibly challenging.” He emphasized that these figures are “actual data gathered from around the world,” presenting an unbiased picture.
Sakurai also addressed why online discussions might suggest certain characters are significantly better or worse than others despite the narrow win rate range. “The internet can become an echo chamber, where if enough people say a character is strong or weak, that perception gains momentum and starts to seem more true than it is,” he noted.
Sakurai launched his YouTube channel in August 2022 as a platform to discuss the intricacies of game design and development. He plans to conclude the channel in 2024, though he hasn’t specified the reason. Fans speculate that it might be related to the development of the next Super Smash Bros. game, but nothing has been confirmed.
Sakurai has previously expressed uncertainty about how the franchise could evolve beyond Ultimate, which features an extensive roster including characters from outside Nintendo like Sephiroth from Final Fantasy 7, Sora from Kingdom Hearts, Joker from Persona 5, and Steve and Alex from Minecraft.
In January 2024, Sakurai gave fans some hope, stating he is still focused on creating games. Whether this means another Super Smash Bros. game remains unclear, but Sakurai has made one thing certain: “I can’t imagine a Smash Bros. title without me.”